What a trip

[Bill_Rockoff]

It made me think of "Heavy Metal."



"How do you like my panel gaps NOW?"

The car thing was a stunt, but there was never going to be a functioning payload on a test-flight. That stuff is too hard to build, and when it blows up on the launch pad, you can't always just go pull another satellite off the shelf for the next launch. (Side note: Paul, Ducati Scrambler guy from the fall Tellico rally in 2015, designs scientific test equipment for the ISS.)

Pat, I'd hold onto that Tesla stock. The guy isn't in the "electric car" business, the guy is in the "energy storage and management" business, and Tesla is where Ford was 100 years ago, getting ready to mass-produce things we never thought we'd need 20 years ago. SpaceX is doing things in a similar way, taking something daunting and special and turning it into something repeatable that can become a commodity. My only worry is that "running a company that does good things" is different from "running a good company," and by all accounts the workload at SpaceX is not conducive to long-term employment. (Side note: Bruce, Moto Guzzi guy from the spring Boone rally in 2017, interviewed with SpaceX last year and said the people he met told him that working there was basically what everyone did instead of "hobbies.")

[rlucas]

I like the "Don't Panic" touch.

Rumor has it there's a towel in the glovebox as well.

[FJ1100mjk]

My apologies Red,

It's obvious I'm too fucking stupid to post in this thread.  I will continue to refrain from contributing to this message board in the future.

Yep, probably the best tack to take.

Leave all comments and advice on all FJ, and everything else in this world, to the Gand Poobahs, the self-imposed resident experts, and guardians of righteousness here. Less grief.

[ZOA NOM]

 

[Charlie-brm]

Wow, that went South in a hurry... I feel much better about sharing my political views now.  

LOL. OK, I found that funny. Thanks for the smile.

[Pat Conlon]

I have Tesla stock and I'm getting a tad cranky after the Q4 reports showing with *another* yearly loss.
($2 billion in 2017)

I realize Space X is a different company, but we sure could use those guys in Reno Nevada to straighten out the Tesla Model 3 production woes. I know, I know, apples to oranges, etc.

Still trying to be patient....but getting a bit antsy. My heart says stay...but my brain says sell.

Pat, I'd hold onto that Tesla stock. The guy isn't in the "electric car" business, the guy is in the "energy storage and management" business, and Tesla is where Ford was 100 years ago, getting ready to mass-produce things we never thought we'd need 20 years ago.

I realize that this thread is almost 2 years old, but I just wanted to say....

******* Thank you Bill *************

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/11/17/if-you-invested-5000-in-teslas-ipo-this-is-how-muc.aspx

A partial quote from the above article:

"....Tesla's stock went public at just $17 back on June 29, 2010. On the first day of trading, its stock shot up over 40% to $23.89. Yet even if you were a public investor who didn't get in on the pre-trading IPO price, you still would have made a small fortune."

"Today, Tesla's stock sits at $347, just over 20 times its IPO price and over 14 times the price at the end of the first day of trading. That's a total return of 1,941% and 1,322%, respectively. If you had invested $5,000 and been lucky enough to get in at the IPO price of $17, your Tesla stock would be worth $102,050 today. Over nine years and four months, that's an average annual return of 38.3%."

[Millietant]

I hope for your sake Pat that the bubble doesn't burst while you're still holding stocks.

Whatever it is that Musk has got it must be magic - he isn't financing things with "his" money, he's financing it with investors money. I really don't know how a business which has a major division losing billions of $ per year (with no real signs of change, other than year after year of wildly inaccurate forecasts) can see it's stocks skyrocketing, year after year.

Someone (Governemental) has too much invested to let this fail, despite the fact that it's technology and developments are going far slower than every business forecast they've made.

Musk and Tesla may well be in the energy storage and management business, but so far, by any normal measure of performance, there are big issues in that group of businesses which, if they occurred in any other business, would have investors and the SEC demanding senior heads to roll.

[Motofun]

While I'm no fan of Elon Musk...if investors are willing to put up their money for him to spend, so be it.  They must have faith that he will turn it around and they will be rewarded.  For their sake, I hope so.  I'm not so confident, I might be wrong but I won't be impacted if his bubble bursts.  No balls no blue chips is how the saying goes....

[Pat Conlon]

I was ready to sell....believe me, I know what you're saying...but
1) the early production woes were settled and the Tesla Model 3 became a best seller (just ask BMW)
2) Tesla's expanding it's Gigafactories in China and Germany.
And as Bill predicted....
3)  Powerwalls are set become very popular once our local electrical utility, Southern Calif. Edison converts all residential accounts over to Time of Use rates. (TOU) This TOU rate will be incredibly expensive here in the lower desert. Folks must air condition their buildings in the summer afternoons when rates are the highest.
These Powerwalls will allow the loads to be time shifted. They can be charged late at night durning the low rates and discharged back into the house service durning the peak rates. At the projected $0.38 per kWh for on peak power and $0.08 for off peak power, the ROI for a full time home owner here in the desert is under 4 years. We all know about batteries on PV solar systems, but this Powerwall product can work and be beneficial without a PV system.

I think I'll hold on to the stock a bit longer.....

[ZOA NOM]

So, I suppose we need to ramp up the coal production? Or maybe cover the whole landscape with those ridiculous wind generators? I'l be glad when all the hype over electric whatevers is finally faced with the reality of their "carbon footprint". Yeah, yeah, they're so sexy with their "instant torque", and they can pull just about anything up to 60 mph, but so what? MAGA

[Pat Conlon]

Yea, EV's in China with coal powered generating plants, that could be an issue.
Ev's In Europe with coal plants, less of an issue....coal is on its way out.
Ev's in the USA with coal plants, even less of an issue, coal can not compete with natural gas.

Specifically EV's here in Calif with coal plants (3%) is almost a non issue.
https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/almanac/electricity_data/total_system_power.html
Calif. will be coal free in 2020.

Tesla Powerwall with coal plants is not applicable. The battery merely stores power, shifting TOU.

Mr. MAGA invest in "beautiful clean coal" and see how that works out for you....
...and Fuck President Bone Spurs, he's a coward.

[Millietant]

Coal plants won't be the issue with future Battery power storage - with things like the Powerwall, the minerals needed to make the storage units/batteries will be.

There already isn't enough cobalt going to be available shortly for current battery volume production, so now they're looking and vacuuming up huge swathes of the sea floor to get at "easy to mine" cobalt nodules - now that's an easy and environmentally sustainable/friendly operation, isn't it !!!

This issue has come up without building vast numbers of power walls, I can only imagine what damage to our ecosystem will happen if they become "popular" - at the moment, over here, wind farms aren't the big issue with locals, it's the "solar farms" that are generating adverse public feeling - covering open land with thousands of hectares of solar panels is absolutely ridiculous, especially when the environmentalists are blaming covering the ground with impervious concrete and asphalt, for the flooding that we've been experiencing.

These fields of panels are also stopping rainwater from landing on the ground, except where it's being "directed" in huge, unnatural quantities.

All of this "short-term" thinking is doing as much damage to our plant and ecosystem as the evil they are supposed to replacing - imagine that some people think  that it's perfectly acceptable and environmentally responsible to have a battery electric car for local journeys and the hire another car (or even fly), for longer journeys - so lets have a battery electric car AND fossil fuel powered car......that really makes sense.

Unfortunately, the rush to be "seen" to be making progress (to keep investors happy) is likely pushing us prematurely down the route of underdeveloped options like these that will in the long run come back to haunt us.

Our govt have already committed to eliminating any new fossil fuel powered vehicles on our roads in the near future (we are a long way "ahead" (if that's what you can call it) of the USA in that respect), and yet there isn't a viable alternative for many of the population, and how the hell are we going to transport goods (without trucks that can carry cargo over long distances with minimal "downtime"). There's a lot more proper thought needs to go into this subject to make sure we have viable alternatives to the internal combustion engine for motive power, and not just the short term "marketing" alternatives we're being pedalled now.

I'd rather our Govt's fund some proper research into alternative motive power and take it away from those (like EM) who are only looking to "make a buck" out of the whole process. Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of electric motors and electric propulsion, as long as it gives us the solution to switch completely to it, and not just a half-assed make-shift option of using electricity part of the time and returning to fossil fuel when electric vehicles can't meet the needs of the average Joe/Jane

[Millietant]

Looking at that table you've linked Pat, Coal isn't the only "dirty" fuel used on Power supply for California - if you add in Natural Gas, Oil and Other fossil fuel power generation, around 50% of California's electricity still comes from "dirty" fossil fuel sources - all pumping out masses of CO2 etc - that's where we need to get creative and invest in cleaning up power supply !

All those "zero emission" cars and bikes are really running on fossil fuels, making plenty of emissions generating the electricity, they're just being produced away from the vehicle. The smugness of those purporting to drive "Zero Emission" vehicles astounds me.

Lower emission, yes; but Zero emission, not on your nelly !

[Pat Conlon]

I only linked coal into the conversation because that's what Mr MAGA seems to be concerned with...
The critics of EV's seem to keep harping on a perceived fact that all the EV's are powered from coal plants.
Yea sure, natural gas is a fossil fuel, but it is light years cleaner than coal. (and more efficient)
Oh yea, BTW for the fans of President Bone Spurs, there is no such thing as "clean coal". Everyone knows that, correct? CO2 sequestering is a myth.
The critics of EV's do not mention natural gas electrical generation for a very good reason.
Taking the total emissions into account, an EV powered by a natural gas electrical plant is still much cleaner than the best ICE available today or in the perceived future.
Yes, future centralized electrical generation will evolve to cleaner sources, but the real advancement will come from distributed power generation, as the new high efficiency multi-junction PV panels come on line.

Re: Materials: We are in the infant stage of battery technology and development, materials will evolve.

My family has 2 cars. Most families have 2 cars. Most of my driving is within 30 miles of my home.
My wife bless her heart, will run her car down to past empty on fuel. She just does not like to stop and get gas, she says it smells bad, she is too busy or most likely late for where she is going.
I get into her car and ask, "Honey, how long has the fuel light been on?"  
She would say, "I think it came on yesterday..."  aaaagh.
Now this is my dilemma, knowing what I know about her, do I really think she will take the time to plug in her EV for charging? Not on her life....

Here's a solution: https://www.pluglesspower.com/learn/2nd-generation-plugless/

[Millietant]

Yeah, we live in different societies Pat, and vastly different cultures when it comes to cars - but still, 2 years on and that Plugless charging system is still unheard of over here - over-promising and under-delivering ? or am i just living in the wrong country :-.

The 2-car family is still not the norm here and because of people travelling/relocating for work - as well as the working culture here - a lot of people simply couldn't manage life today with a Battery Electric vehicle.

My wife recently had a job which required her to regularly drive up to 400 miles in a day, visiting 7-8 customers.

If we're visiting family, we almost always have to travel 400-500 miles in a single day at the weekend, spending maybe 2-3 hours with the family (aged, dementia, really gets comfort from seeing us) before returning home.

Travelling to and from any of the major airports to transport/collect family members (which we do regularly), is simply too risky to entertain in anything other than a mega expensive Tesla (due to the range and our travelling timescales), which in some cases would only just make the journey on a full charge (you certainly don't want to park in an airport for the time it takes to charge a car......expensive parking is an understatement).

We simply couldn't make those journeys with a Battery Car, without a drastic change to our lives and journey planning - and without paying a significant premium  over the cost of an ICE car.

Because of our society/culture/geography/lifestyle here in the UK, battery electric cars are having a really tough time getting a foothold - if they were reasonably and competitively priced in the first place, then a lot of London and other major urban city drivers could probably plump for electric, but for the time being, for the rest of us, they're a pipe dream (I tested hydrogen fuel cell dumper trucks in quarries in the 1990/early 2000's and they were awesome - I really took a shine to electric power back then....instant torque, quiet running, smoothness......just wish the technology had moved forward more across the board to make electric vehicles of all sorts more attainable/practical.