WW3... Closer than you think IMHO

[Flynt]

Quick post, but watch the link please.  The video (a TED Talk) is about "Droids taking our jobs", but the takeaway for me is we are losing a large segment of the workforce to technological progress and the people losing out are largely left to their own to figure out their path forward...  This creates a growing group of people that conclude Democracy hasn't worked for them and they need their leaders to fix it.

This is an opinion obviously, but the rise of the new Nazi party in Germany helped crystallize this for me and I thought I'd share.  AFD (Alternative for Deutschland) is now at about 20% of the voting base in Germany and they are using rhetoric that was pretty much banned for the past half century to drive a new fascist movement.  Putin is doing the same in Russia and (again IMHO) it is happening in the US as well.  The developed world is straining under tremendous pressure to make it right again for the "have nots".

The link gets into some really interesting data at about 9 minutes around what really changes the human condition at large.  The Industrial Revolution displaced and disenfranchised millions in the early 1900s leading to the rise of some really bad people (Hitler et. al.) and, ultimately, the most devastating war in history (WW2).  The current "productivity revolution" is really dwarfing what the steam engine did for the 20th century (I saw an Audi production line last week where 95+% of the car is built without human hands...  the humans build the droids, but the droids build the cars).  The link is focused on the positive outcomes, but that stuff is going to take a while to materialize.  The negative outcomes that will lead us into another major WW are happening now...

Enough prelude...  watch the link please:

https://www.ted.com/talks/andrew_mcafee_are_droids_taking_our_jobs?language=en

I'm not sure we can avoid the predictable outcome, but do believe it is useful to look at world events through this lens.  I fear the next WW conflict will not end with our soldiers coming home to a kiss and a job... so we should take lessons from the approach to WW2 and look for ways to defuse the situation whenever possible.

Thanks for your time.

Frank

BTW - this is not a veiled message about our election...  I've said too much about that already.  I also apologize in advance if this moves me further toward being categorized as an elitist somehow...  The people I know on this forum are very educated and seek information.  This doesn't have anything to do with their level of formal instruction. 

[FJ1100mjk]

You can stoke the fires of your concerns with this latest development. It may seem insignificant, but may be of consequence.

U.S. has Lost

[ZOA NOM]

Quick post, but watch the link please.  The video (a TED Talk) is about "Droids taking our jobs", but the takeaway for me is we are losing a large segment of the workforce to technological progress and the people losing out are largely left to their own to figure out their path forward...  This creates a growing group of people that conclude Democracy hasn't worked for them and they need their leaders to fix it.

This is an opinion obviously, but the rise of the new Nazi party in Germany helped crystallize this for me and I thought I'd share.  AFD (Alternative for Deutschland) is now at about 20% of the voting base in Germany and they are using rhetoric that was pretty much banned for the past half century to drive a new fascist movement.  Putin is doing the same in Russia and (again IMHO) it is happening in the US as well.  The developed world is straining under tremendous pressure to make it right again for the "have nots".

The link gets into some really interesting data at about 9 minutes around what really changes the human condition at large.  The Industrial Revolution displaced and disenfranchised millions in the early 1900s leading to the rise of some really bad people (Hitler et. al.) and, ultimately, the most devastating war in history (WW2).  The current "productivity revolution" is really dwarfing what the steam engine did for the 20th century (I saw an Audi production line last week where 95+% of the car is built without human hands...  the humans build the droids, but the droids build the cars).  The link is focused on the positive outcomes, but that stuff is going to take a while to materialize.  The negative outcomes that will lead us into another major WW are happening now...

Enough prelude...  watch the link please:

https://www.ted.com/talks/andrew_mcafee_are_droids_taking_our_jobs?language=en

I'm not sure we can avoid the predictable outcome, but do believe it is useful to look at world events through this lens.  I fear the next WW conflict will not end with our soldiers coming home to a kiss and a job... so we should take lessons from the approach to WW2 and look for ways to defuse the situation whenever possible.

Thanks for your time.

Frank

BTW - this is not a veiled message about our election...  I've said too much about that already.  I also apologize in advance if this moves me further toward being categorized as an elitist somehow...  The people I know on this forum are very educated and seek information.  This doesn't have anything to do with their level of formal instruction. 

I see nothing in the presentation to fear. I do, however, see a difference in technology's impact on our society, depending on the path we take this November. As I said in an earlier, more vitriolic thread, the difference is clear to me; allow the Government to control our lives, or allow the individual to thrive (or wither) at his own risk. I see nothing wrong with feeling the need to help those less fortunate, but I have no need to be forced to do so by the Government. Humans are naturally giving and caring, in my experience, unless of course, they are politicians.

As for the robots, technology has ALWAYS displaced workers at some level, and always will. It's the natural order of things. Populations that don't keep up will simply die. Harsh reality, but it isn't the fault or the responsibility of those who adapt. My advice is to become a lawyer, those assholes never die.

[Steve_in_Florida]

Do you have any idea what poor people do when they can't feed themselves?

They panic.

Ever try to help someone who's in a panic?

Rhetoric goes right out the window.

People with means take pause, have a snack, and come up with alternatives.

People without means make instantaneous decisions that support their survival AT THE MOMENT. No regard for long-term consequences. NOW. Because that's all that matters.

Survival NOW.

How long did it take for our social mores to break down during Hurricane Katrina in the 9th ward? I seem to recall lawless looting after only a matter of hours.

That wasn't that long ago, and this is a "civilized" modern society.

I don't know how things are in your area, but Central Florida is NOT the paradise that Disney and Universal make it out to be in their brochures. Venture too far off their property and you're likely to get robbed, carjacked, or shot.

Wow. Civilized AND modern.

We don't live far from other societies who routinely solve their problems swiftly and efficiently with machetes.

...and the election of any particular "candidate" is NOT going to solve this mindset.

These are just some of Steve's morning coffee-fueled ramblings.

Steve

[Flynt]

I see nothing in the presentation to fear.

The talk is very positive...  my point was the Industrial Revolution displaced huge numbers of workers and caused economic calamity that was really only addressed at scale by going to war and putting people to work fighting or making weapons.  We're seeing the same displacement in the workforce and in the absence of another job, they are panicking and looking at increasingly radical ways to survive... 

I believe the US has a big opportunity around infrastructure and clean energy development that would employ lots of people and could make us the envy of the free world.  No matter who or what wins this election, I hope we can focus on continuing to put our nation on a "building" path and not tear away at the very foundations of the greatest Democracy the world has seen thus far...

Frank

[Pat Conlon]

I hope we can focus on continuing to put our nation on a "building" path and not tear away at the very foundations of the greatest Democracy the world has seen thus far...

Yes, I hope so too...for starters, we have a lot of "deferred maintenance" on our infrastructure we need to catch up on...
Clean energy is coming. Electric cars are coming. PV solar is alive and well and which should be on every roof of every building in the world. (but we'll start with the USA)

[ZOA NOM]

I see nothing in the presentation to fear.

The talk is very positive...  my point was the Industrial Revolution displaced huge numbers of workers and caused economic calamity that was really only addressed at scale by going to war and putting people to work fighting or making weapons.  We're seeing the same displacement in the workforce and in the absence of another job, they are panicking and looking at increasingly radical ways to survive... 

I believe the US has a big opportunity around infrastructure and clean energy development that would employ lots of people and could make us the envy of the free world.  No matter who or what wins this election, I hope we can focus on continuing to put our nation on a "building" path and not tear away at the very foundations of the greatest Democracy the world has seen thus far...

Frank

I completely agree. If the Government will get the hell out of the way, we can unleash the true power of this country's resources, both digital and environmental.